The Manchester Monitor is a dashboard of Greater Manchester specific data and indicators designed to provide a monthly analytical snapshot of the economic wellbeing of the city region.

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AUGUST 2011

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Is GM bucking the trend?

The holiday season may be upon us, but there is little summer cheer for the UK economy. The latest GDP figures released at the end of July suggest that economic growth may be effectively stalling, while there remain major concerns about the health of the wider Euro zone.

At a UK level, GDP grew by only 0.2% in the second quarter of 2011, although analysis by the ONS suggests that growth might have been three times higher but for special factors such as the impact of the Japanese tsunami and the additional bank holiday. Output increased by 0.5% in both the construction and service industries but fell by 1.4% in the production industries.

While the private sector is continuing to grow and is creating new employment opportunities, recent research by Capital Economics highlights that 75.0% of all jobs created since the end of 2009 have been in London, the South East, South West and in East Anglia.

Set within this context, the current economic conditions for Greater Manchester are clearly extremely challenging. The number of people claiming JSA has grown by more than 2,000 since June 2010 to reach 76,700. Even more worryingly, the number of people claiming JSA for 6 months or longer in GM rose to more than 27,000 and continued an upward trend which began at the end of 2010.

Despite the gloomy macroeconomic picture this month, there has been positive news for GM. The recent strong growth in passenger numbers continued at Manchester Airport and they reached 1.74 million in May, representing growth of 10% (158,000 passengers) over the last 12 months.

Hotel occupancy also grew strongly in June, rising to 82.8% in Manchester city centre and 81.4% in GM as a whole. Occupancy in the city centre was at its highest level since monitoring began in 2000.

In addition, up to 600 jobs will be created when Aegis, the global outsourcing provider, moves into Manchester city centre later in 2011.

The Chamber’s Q2 Economic Survey, which gauges business opinion, points to better times ahead towards the end of 2011, with an increasing emphasis on recruitment and training amongst companies in GM.

For the time being however, a dark cloud still looms large over the economy. As households grapple with rising costs and the risks associated with an uncertain labour market, GM must weather the storm. The indicators reported in this month’s Monitor suggest it is relatively well placed to do so.

You can find more detailed analysis and the data throughout the Manchester Monitor for August 2011:

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DISCLAIMER

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All data contained in the Manchester Monitor, and all Monitor-related reports, has been compiled by New Economy from a range of sources and is published for general information purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data and other material contained in this report, the Commission for the New Economy does not accept any liability (whether in contract, tort or otherwise) to any person for any loss or damage suffered as a result of any errors or omissions. The information, opinions and forecasts set out in the report should not be relied upon to replace professional advice on specific matters, and no responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of any material in this publication can be accepted by the Commission for the New Economy.