The Manchester Monitor is a dashboard of Greater Manchester specific data and indicators designed to provide a monthly analytical snapshot of the economic wellbeing of the city region.

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JUNE 2011

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Opportunities are emerging but uncertainty remains

At a national level, there is compelling circumstantial evidence that the economy is heading towards a sustained period of stagnation. The phrase “bumping along the bottom” was used by the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King back in February 2010 to describe the state of the economy, and this stance is still true over 12 months later. At the end of May, the British Chamber of Commerce cut its growth forecast for the UK economy from 1.4% to 1.3% for 2011, citing rising inflation and a squeeze on household incomes. The 2010 Greater Manchester Forecasting Model predicted UK growth of 2.2% for 2011, so the Chamber estimate shows just how tough conditions are.

Set within the national context there are clearly challenging times ahead for Greater Manchester. The number of business deals over the past month has fallen significantly, while bankruptcies and winding up orders have risen since the last edition of the Monitor. The number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance has risen this month – by more than 1,000. Of the 10 constituent local authorities in Greater Manchester, only Wigan was immune to this trend.

Youth and long term claimants have increased this month, however over the last year there have been significant improvements within each group. In particular, the number of long term claimants (claiming for 6 months or longer) has declined by more than one quarter – a reduction of nearly 8,500 since last year. So despite the latest monthly data painting a less optimistic picture of the current situation, the annual improvements do suggest that great strides have been made over the last 12 months in reducing the number of claimants in these key groups.

Staying with the theme of getting people back into work, the number of job vacancies has increased dramatically over the last month when there were just over 16,700. The figure now stands at in excess of 19,700, which equates to around 26 jobs per 100 claimants. This is an extremely positive trend and if people on Jobseeker’s Allowance can access these new opportunities, the claimant count may start to reduce over the coming months in Greater Manchester.

Hotel occupancy rates and footfall in the city centre show a decline in April 2011. Looking to the future, it is clear to see that Greater Manchester is facing a number of challenges, including the drive to create new employment opportunities, attract further business and increase the number of visitors to the area. From a commercial perspective, prime office rents have risen over the last quarter, suggesting that Manchester still remains a popular location for business investment.

In addition, the news that passengers at Manchester Airport now stand at their highest level since October 2010 is welcome. As already highlighted, the increase in vacancies should also help to drive economic growth, while the fact that both Manchester sides will be playing Champions League football next season is an added bonus– recent estimates by New Economy Manchester for the Manchester Evening News indicate that Manchester City’s recent FA Cup success and participation in Europe could be worth £25 million alone to Manchester.

You can find more detailed analysis and the data throughout the Manchester Monitor for June 2011:

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DISCLAIMER

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All data contained in the Manchester Monitor, and all Monitor-related reports, has been compiled by New Economy from a range of sources and is published for general information purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data and other material contained in this report, the Commission for the New Economy does not accept any liability (whether in contract, tort or otherwise) to any person for any loss or damage suffered as a result of any errors or omissions. The information, opinions and forecasts set out in the report should not be relied upon to replace professional advice on specific matters, and no responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of any material in this publication can be accepted by the Commission for the New Economy.