- Daily News Update
- Events calendar
- Press releases
- Bumpy ride ahead on the road to recovery
- Manchester-based research team pioneers new approach to increasing effectiveness of public policy
- Greater Manchester continues to grow in strength despite recession
- It’s a recession, but not as we know it
- Data suggests employers are waiting for signs of recovery before hiring again
- Scheme to assist offenders back into employment is a worthwhile investment, says new study
- National economic fragility continues as Manchester fires up the engine for growth
- JSA claimant count gives cause for concern
- Future growth plans could resolve bleak unemployment outlook for Greater Manchester
- Economist Jim O’Neill to open MIPIM ‘Five Cities’ lunchtime debate
- Latest JSA figures point towards a challenging 2012
- Greater Manchester employers offered unique ‘top-up’ to encourage apprenticeships
- Long-term research and development prospects offer hope for Greater Manchester
- Little Christmas cheer in the Greater Manchester jobs market
- Employment outlook gloomy for 2012, but could be worse says New Economy
- Number of jobseekers aged 50+ in Greater Manchester on the rise
- All Greater Manchester wants for Christmas is economic growth and job creation
- Greater Manchester businesses urged to exploit growth opportunities in foreign markets
- Annual rise increases focus on youth unemployment in Greater Manchester
- Manchester Monitor: Greater Manchester's GCSE results improve as youth unemployment rises
- Greater Manchester drives forward its ambition to boost skills and employment
- Energy bills saving of 16% offered to small businesses across the North West
- Greater Manchester GVA forecast to outperform UK
- ”Whole-place” Community Budgets are the next step in generating growth for UK plc
- New Economy’s view on today’s unemployment figures
- North-South divide takes its toll on the economy
- Advanced manufacturing is key to Manchester’s economic resilience - but it will not generate employment growth
- Manchester innovation brings jobs boost to UK with new national Research and Technology Hub for groundbreaking graphene
- Manchester Monitor: Visitor offer remains strong, even in uncertain economic times
- Claimant numbers continue to rise across Greater Manchester
- Manchester Monitor: Challenging times for Greater Manchester as UK recovery slows
- Jobseekers claimants rise across Greater Manchester
- Businesses urged to help tackle youth unemployment
- Manchester Monitor: Signs of Greater Manchester bucking the trend
- Making Manchester a leader in enterprise innovation support
- Monthly jobseekers claimant numbers remain steady across Greater Manchester
- Blue skies remain on the horizon as the economic storm continues in July 2011
- 2011 press archive
- 2010 press archive
- 2009 press archive
Greater Manchester GVA forecast to outperform UK
New Economy has today released economic forecasts for Greater Manchester, showing that GVA will be 1.7% in 2011 compared to just 1.3% in the UK as a whole, driven by the strength of the city’s business services sector.
Data shows similar growth for 2012, with average growth over the next decade (to 2022) of 2.5% per annum. The anticipated growth is however a downward revision on last year’s forecast of 2.8% per annum over the same ten year period.
The forecasts are the latest outputs from the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) – produced by Oxford Economics for New Economy on behalf of the 10 Greater Manchester Local Authorities.
The GMFM is updated annually and produces results for Greater Manchester’s districts by analysing past statistics in light of the latest global and UK macroeconomic conditions.
The 2011 update of the GMFM also shows that over 100,000 additional jobs are expected to be created in Greater Manchester over the next decade.
Job creation will be heavily reliant on financial and business services, which are forecast to create 70% of the additional jobs. The next largest growth in employment will be in distribution and hotels, reports the GMFM.
Over the next quarter of a century, employment growth will be heavily dependent on job creation in the business services sector, where growth of 42% is forecast up to 2032. Total employment across all sectors is expected to grow at a steady but slower rate of 6% over the next quarter of a century.
The forecasts also highlight that within the North West region it is the Greater Manchester area that will continue to show the best performance in terms of GVA and other key economic indicators.
Baron Frankal, director of economic research at New Economy, said: “In the current climate of weak growth and constrained resources, access to the detailed economic intelligence provided by GMFM is invaluable in shaping decision-making to ensure maximum impact.
“GMFM highlights that opportunities for growth exist right across the conurbation and that a particular focus is needed upon those sectors that are internationally competitive and can generate exports.”
The findings of the model were presented in a seminar last week by Alan Wilson, director of consulting services at Oxford Economics and Neil Gibson, director of regional services at Oxford Economics, and are available to download here
