The Manchester Monitor is a dashboard of Greater Manchester specific data and indicators designed to provide a monthly analytical snapshot of the economic wellbeing of the city region.

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AUGUST 2010
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The recovery slows in Greater Manchester

Recent news that the UK’s economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter of 2010 raises hopes for businesses and employees alike. The news affects consumer’s spending patterns, and the investment decisions of both domestic and foreign businesses. Yet on the ground in Greater Manchester, indicators suggest that the positive growth began to slow in the summer months.

Despite large falls in recent months, the number of jobseeker’s allowance claimants remained relatively static this month. There were still several fluctuations across the districts, with Salford and Trafford experiencing the largest growth in claimant numbers. Linked to this, there have been fewer vacancies this month in comparison to last month – an indication of the slowing summer market. Increased educational take-up in September is likely to reduce the benefit caseload in autumn, but until then, the claimant count is likely to remain static.

Quarterly business figures also hint at a better performing economy – fewer companies were wound up in the second quarter of 2010 in Greater Manchester, and there were fewer debtor bankruptcies than last year. But again, monthly business indicators paint a more hesitant picture. After a growth in mergers and acquisitions in May and June, July figures slipped again to a low of just 9, mirroring falling figures across the North West and UK. Simultaneously, the number of firms classed as ‘high risk’ has increased – as businesses take longer to pay back creditors.

Hotel occupancy rates have remained relatively static this year, showing little growth from the last year. Set against this, the regional centre’s economy appears to be doing well with an annual growth in turnover of 6.6% , despite a fall in retail spending nationally of 1.1% ; and an annual growth of 1.2% in footfall, compared to a fairly static level nationally.

This all highlights increased consumer confidence in Greater Manchester, and there is reason to believe that residents are suffering fewer financial difficulties than this time last year – with landlord and mortgage repossession claims down both on the quarter and on the year.

Therefore, it appears that the uncertainty is coming from businesses – whilst consumer confidence is on the up, businesses are more wary. The long-term position of low interest rates is untenable and the current lending market has reduced the likelihood of financing investment through debt. Likewise, the medium-term and long-term position of central government is focused on debt reduction. VAT increases in the new year, and cuts to benefits and general government spend, could reduce consumer spending and make for an uncertain future. However, Manchester is as well placed as any in the UK to weather the challenge to come.

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worklessness
MONITOR
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In July 2010, JSA claimant figures remained relatively static. JSA claimants now stand at 74,325, down 0.2% on June and down 6.3% on July 2009. Vacancies fell this month, though have shown an annual increase of 11.1%. In a positive move, long-term claimant numbers continue to fall at a faster rate than the average across Greater Manchester.

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business
MONITOR
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Nearly 40% of businesses in Greater Manchester are considered ‘high risk’, an increase on last month. Simultaneously, the numbers of mergers and acquisitions has decreased.

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economic
MONITOR
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House prices increased marginally in the month to June 2010, reaching £112,316 across Greater Manchester. Annually, house prices are up 4.4%, though this is lower than the national average.

Tourism indicators are more mixed. Hotel occupancy rates have shown a slight annual decrease and Manchester Airport’s performance is still down on last year, although there are signs that it is beginning to recover.

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DISCLAIMER
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All data contained in the Manchester Monitor, and all Monitor-related reports, has been compiled by New Economy from a range of sources and is published for general information purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data and other material contained in this report, the Commission for the New Economy does not accept any liability (whether in contract, tort or otherwise) to any person for any loss or damage suffered as a result of any errors or omissions. The information, opinions and forecasts set out in the report should not be relied upon to replace professional advice on specific matters, and no responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of any material in this publication can be accepted by the Commission for the New Economy.