The Manchester Monitor is a dashboard of Greater Manchester specific data and indicators designed to provide a monthly analytical snapshot of the economic wellbeing of the city region.

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JULY 2010
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A healthy recovery?

The signs of growth in the economy seem to be gaining ground. From where the economy was just a year ago we appear to have come a long way – shorter jobs queues, more vacancies, increased spend, and positive business indicators. However, the outlook remains uncertain. The local economy faces two interlinked challenges: public sector cuts and public sector restructuring. Though these are designed to provide better economic health in the long-run, it may make things worse before it makes them better.

For now, though, local indicators seem positive. Business indicators especially are on the up – with more job vacancies than last year highlighting growing confidence amongst businesses in their short-term prospects. Indeed, both the services and manufacturing sectors have positive employment outlooks for the next three months, according to GM Chamber’s Quarterly Economic Survey. The number of businesses classified as ‘low risk’ has also increased.

In the labour market, jobseeker’s allowance claimants continued to fall this month – the fifth month in a row where claimant numbers have fallen. In contrast, this time last year the figures were still on the rise. New Economy estimates that total unemployment – which includes those who are not claiming benefits – stood at 124,460, a quarterly fall.

The city centre is also continuing to perform well, with hotel occupancy rates higher than last year – as they are across Greater Manchester. Meanwhile, figures provided by CityCo indicate that annual growth in retail spend in the city centre is outperforming reported growth nationally.

Yet risks still remain for the economy. After the effects of ash clouds in April, May’s airport statistics show an annual fall in both passengers and air transport movements, bringing fewer business travelers and tourists into the city. House price growth is also stunted in comparison to the national average, and the recent slump in house sales has not been reversed.

Commercial property prospects are also showing a downbeat outlook. There was no new office supply in Manchester in Q2 2010, according to property consultant DTZ. Take up of office space has fallen this quarter (despite a rise on the year), meaning that office space availability has increased. This is likely to put a downward pressure on office rents in the future.

Public sector cuts are also beginning to take shape. The challenge is to ensure that leaner and more efficient, high-quality services are developed that drive the economic growth that the above figures emphasise Manchester has the potential to achieve. In the rocky economic times to come, Manchester needs to take maximum advantage of its economic weight to drive growth and prosperity.

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worklessness
MONITOR
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In June 2010, JSA claimant figures fell for the fifth month in a row. JSA claimants now stand at 74,446, down 3.6% on May and down 4.6% on June 2009. Vacancies fell this month, though have shown an annual increase of over 50%. In another positive move, long-term claimant numbers continue to fall, though at a slower rate than the average across Greater Manchester.

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business
MONITOR
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More businesses are now classified as ‘low risk’ in Greater Manchester, providing an incentive for investors. Simultaneously, the numbers of mergers and acquisitions has increased.

The recent Quarterly Economic Survey by GM Chamber of Commerce also highlights positive outlooks for businesses in both manufacturing and services.

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economic
MONITOR
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House prices increased marginally in the month to May 2010, reaching £112,264 across Greater Manchester. Annually, house prices are up 4.0%, though this is lower than the national average.

Tourism indicators are more mixed. Hotel occupancy rates have shown an annual increase, but Manchester Airport’s performance is still down on the year.

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DISCLAIMER
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All data contained in the Manchester Monitor, and all Monitor-related reports, has been compiled by New Economy from a range of sources and is published for general information purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data and other material contained in this report, the Commission for the New Economy does not accept any liability (whether in contract, tort or otherwise) to any person for any loss or damage suffered as a result of any errors or omissions. The information, opinions and forecasts set out in the report should not be relied upon to replace professional advice on specific matters, and no responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of any material in this publication can be accepted by the Commission for the New Economy.