The Manchester Monitor is a dashboard of Greater Manchester specific data and indicators designed to provide a monthly analytical snapshot of the economic wellbeing of the city region.

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MARCH 2010
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This month’s Manchester Monitor sees small but steady signs of growth continuing, but reinforces that risks remain on the downside. Property indicators lead the way, with house prices continuing to rise (to an average £111,476) across the city region in January, reversing some of 2009’s decline. DTZ’s Property Times for Manchester also highlights that Q4 2009 saw increased city centre office take-up in Manchester, alongside increased availability of office space. All of this has led to increased business confidence in the lettings market for 2010.

Labour market indicators are proving strong, despite the expectation of a continuing post-New Year lapse in job opportunities. Reported vacancies actually rose this month, and fewer people claimed jobseeker’s allowance. However, in a warning of difficult months ahead, the number of expected redundancies reported to Jobcentre Plus jumped significantly in February.

Business indicators were mixed. The Manchester Monitor Index, which monitors the share prices of Greater Manchester’s listed firms, shows growth of 26.9% over the year, and the number of business deals has seen slight growth. However, both the MMI and business deals remain depressed in comparison to the national averages. The number of high-risk firms – businesses with a high risk rating due to the time taken to pay invoices – has fallen marginally in the last month, but the city region still has a higher proportion of high-risk firms than the national average.

This mixed outlook is mirrored in the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce’s recent quarterly economic survey. Increased export sales have not offset decreases in domestic orders for the manufacturing sector, leading to net job losses and reduced intentions to recruit and invest. Yet service businesses have shown increased orders and sales – both here and abroad – and as such signal increasing confidence in the year ahead.

However, the national economy still dominates. Despite the further upward revision of growth in Q4 2009 to 0.4% the sustainability of this nascent recovery remains highly uncertain, particularly given the significant weakening of export performance. That said, according to recent figures, Manchester is significantly less reliant on public sector employment than any other city region outside London, making it better placed to deal with the forthcoming fiscal contraction.

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worklessness
MONITOR
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This month saw an unexpected reduction in jobseeker’s allowance claimants, alongside an increase in reported vacancies, indicating strengthening labour market demand. The decrease of 0.5% in claimants this month may be relatively small, but contrasts to both the national increase (0.2) and the same period last year, where claimant numbers showed a monthly increase of 12.5 – the highest monthly increase since 1983. However, both youth claimants and long-term claimants recorded an increase. Job vacancies also rose this month, yet a significant jump in notified redundancies in February indicates the potential for increased on-flows to JSA in future months.

Also released this month is the quarterly Worklessness Monitor, focusing on worklessness and wider out of work benefit claimants. The Worklessness Monitor finds that worklessness rose to 490,300 (a rise of 1.2) in June 2009, as a result of increases in unemployment. Comparatively, economic inactivity actually fell by 1.5.

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business
MONITOR
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Business performance this month has been positive but subdued. The number of deals over £500k in the city region increased in February 2010, but still represented an annual reduction of one-third, significantly below the 7.3% annual decrease nationally.

The general credit risk of the city region has also improved, with the number of high-risk firms falling to February 2010, and the number of low- and medium-risk firms increasing. However, the city region remains relatively risky, with 39.4% of firms considered ‘high-risk’ against 28.9% of firms in March 2009.

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economic
MONITOR
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House prices continued to grow into the New Year, reaching £111,476 in January 2010 despite a drop in sales across the city region. Annually, house prices have fallen by 3.6, compared to a rise of 5.2 in England and Wales.

The office market appears healthier by comparison. Research by DTZ suggests that, although the average rent per square foot for grade A office space has declined in the past year, both the supply and demand of new office space remain high in comparison to other key cities.

Tourism indicators also show improvement. Hotel occupancy rates reached 63% in January 2010, an increase of 4% annually, with increases in both weekday and weekend occupancy. By comparison, Flights– both passenger and freight – were down, suggesting that increases in hotel occupancy were driven by the domestic market.

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DISCLAIMER
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All data contained in the Manchester Monitor, and all Monitor-related reports, has been compiled by New Economy from a range of sources and is published for general information purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data and other material contained in this report, the Commission for the New Economy does not accept any liability (whether in contract, tort or otherwise) to any person for any loss or damage suffered as a result of any errors or omissions. The information, opinions and forecasts set out in the report should not be relied upon to replace professional advice on specific matters, and no responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of any material in this publication can be accepted by the Commission for the New Economy.