Seasonal trends return to Greater Manchester as vacancies fall and unemployment rises

For the first time in over three months, the number of jobseekers allowance claimants has increased in Greater Manchester. However, the 5.3% monthly increase across the city region was not as great as that experienced regionally (5.7% ) or nationally (5.5% ). As of January 2010, the number of JSA claimants stood at 85,020, an increase of 4,275 (5.3% ) on the month and 20,337 (31.4% ) on the year. The claimant count rate returned to 5.3% of the population, reversing the falls experienced in the last three months and moves Greater Manchester to the highest rate experienced since January 1997.

In conjunction with rising claimant levels, the number of job opportunities fell in the city region. There were 11,162 job vacancies reported to Jobcentre Plus in January 2010, a monthly fall of 29.5% (4,674), caused by the drying up of seasonal job opportunities. This meant that across the city region, there were around 13 jobs for every 100 claimants – a fall from 20 jobs per 100 claimants last month. However, compared with last year there were an additional 5,054 job opportunities, an increase of 82.7%.

New Economy estimates that in the three months to December 2009, total unemployment – which includes both unemployment benefit claimants and those not claiming benefit – continued to show a quarterly fall in the city region to 121,400, mainly as a result of increased seasonal job opportunities in the lead up to Christmas. This was a quarterly decrease of around 1.4% (1,700), in comparison to a national quarterly decrease of 0.1%.

John Holden, Head of Strategic Research, at the Commission for the New Economy, said:
“Rising claimant levels are a worry at any time, whether we are in a recession or not. However, these increases are in line with expectations. Claimant levels generally fall in the period leading up to Christmas, as people take up short-term seasonal job opportunities, and then rise in the first few months of the new year as these jobs come to an end. The Manchester economy is certainly faring better than this time last year, with significantly more job opportunities being advertised. However, we do expect to continue to see rises in claimants next month, but at much lower levels than last year.”

Baron Frankal, Director of Economic Strategy at New Economy added:
“These figures confirm that little comfort can be taken from the UK formally coming out of recession at the end of 2009. Coupled with the leap in inflation and the consequences of the coming public spending contraction, the risk of prolonged stagnation remains very real. However, the fact that Manchester’s labour market performed relatively stronger than the UK average is a positive sign and suggests that business confidence in the city remains robust.”

ENDS

Notes to Editors

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• Manchester’s Commission for the New Economy has been established to strategically co-ordinate the work in the field of economic development, employment and skills in the area of the ten AGMA Local Authorities (the Association for Greater Manchester Authorities, made up of the local authorities of Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford and Wigan).

• The Commission for the New Economy is one of seven such commissions created as part of the new governance arrangements for Greater Manchester. Its operations are overseen by a private sector-majority board chaired by Mike Blackburn of BT, which includes most of the AGMA authority leaders. The others are health, public protection, planning and housing, transport, environment and improvement and efficiency.

• For information on the work of New Economy please visit: www.neweconomymanchester.com