CLAIMANT COUNT DATA RELEASE: 12/01/2009

For the third month in a row, Greater Manchester has experienced a decrease in jobseeker’s allowance claimants, complementing a decrease both regionally and nationally. The city region experienced a decrease of 0.6% to 80,745 claimants, whilst the North West experienced a fall of 0.5% and the UK a fall of just 0.2%.

However, despite the positive move for JSA claimants, the number of reported vacancies fell in December, with fewer vacancies for the Christmas period and the new year. As both claimants and vacancies have fallen, the ratio of jobs to claimants has fallen to 20 jobs for every 100 claimants in Greater Manchester. Last month, this ratio stood at 27 jobs per 100 claimants. Comparatively, though, Greater Manchester is performing better than the North West and national averages – with 19 and 17 jobs per 100 claimants respectively.

In the three months to November 2009, New Economy estimates that total unemployment – which includes both unemployment benefit claimants and those not claiming benefit – continued to fall to around 116,700 in Greater Manchester, with just under one-third not claiming JSA. This was a quarterly decrease of around 8,000, or 6.4, in comparison to a national quarterly decrease of 6,700, or 0.3.

John Holden, Head of Strategic Research, at the Commission for the New Economy, said:
“The sustained fall in JSA claimants over the past 3 months is a positive sign for Greater Manchester’s economy – particularly as the city region has outperformed the UK average – but their relevance should not be overstated. Forecasts recently released by Oxford Economics on the city region’s future prospects suggest that unemployment will peak in early 2010, coinciding the with the forecast end of the recession. New Economy believe this is still the most likely scenario, particularly as seasonal unemployment trends are likely to lead to increasing numbers of JSA claimants in the January and February figures.”

Baron Frankal, Director of Economic Strategy at New Economy added:
“There appears to be a definite shift towards recovery in the UK. However, progress is far from assured, particularly with the inevitable withdrawal of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the strong pressure that it will apply to reduce the budget deficit.

“Greater Manchester is taking the lead to ensure that cuts are managed in a way that minimally impacts on the achievement of our long-term goals and enables us to take best advantage of the opportunities innovators and entrepreneurs bring.”

ENDS

Notes to Editors

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• Manchester’s Commission for the New Economy has been established to strategically co-ordinate the work in the field of economic development, employment and skills in the area of the ten AGMA Local Authorities (the Association for Greater Manchester Authorities, made up of the local authorities of Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford and Wigan).

• The Commission for the New Economy is one of seven such commissions created as part of the new governance arrangements for Greater Manchester recently ratified by its ten component authorities. Its operations are overseen by a private sector-majority board chaired by Mike Blackburn of BT, which includes most of the AGMA authority leaders. The others are health, public protection, planning and housing, transport, environment and improvement and efficiency.

• The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) is produced by Oxford Economics for the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities. More information about the model can be found on the GMFM page